Since we are about 7 weeks away from the upcoming 2009-2010 NFL season, I started to think about the expectations for a few teams. Typically, expectations come from previous success or major off-season moves. There were a few surprising success stories last year for some rookie head coaches, as well as first year quarterbacks. In sports we like to call these, "honeymoon" seasons.
Early success in sports is always watched with a careful eye. We are never sure if this is a preview of things to come, or something we just chalk up as beginners luck or an aberration. Last season was a terrific "honeymoon" for rookie head coaches Mike Smith of the Falcons, Tony Sporano of the Dolphins and the Raven's John Harbaugh. Ironically all three teams exceeded expectations by finishing with an 11-5 record. The Ravens and Falcons accomplished this feat with rookie quarterbacks. Again, "honeymoon" seasons for Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco.
These three teams are now thrown into the pressure cooker. These teams have to prove to their fans and to themselves that last year was no fluke. Consistency is critical in the NFL. In a league loaded a parody, only a few teams have been able to maintain that level of consistency, namely the Steelers, Patriots and Colts. When you go from zero expectations to immediate success, the spotlight shines brightly on a franchise.
Success is never guaranteed based on one honeymoon season. Ask Jim Mora Jr. In 2004, his first season as head coach of the Falcons, he led the team to an 11-5 record and an NFC Championship game. Things were peachy in Georgia. The team had a swagger, the city was an NFL town once again. and....expectations were high the following year. Well, sadly, that next season (2005), the Falcons finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs. In 2006, the team took another step backwards and went 7-9, and Jim Mora, Jr. was fired by team owner Arthur Blank, and that honeymoon season of 2004 seemed like a decade ago to fans and undoubtedly to Jim Mora, Jr.
Keep in mind, without a "honeymoon season", we wouldn't have the expression "sophomore slump." Those two phrases almost go hand in hand. Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Tony Sporano are all hoping and praying privately to avoid a colossal disastrous 2nd season with their respective teams. In a sick and twisted way, many sports fans welcome the sophomore slump -- as long as it's not their guys. It brings a sense of calmness to their world. No one wants to see "the other guy" suddenly realize their team has a future superstar or reason for hope.
As a resident of Atlanta, I would be shocked and disappointed to see a sophomore slump from Matt Ryan. He's too bright and spends too much time studying film to improve his craft. However, this is a city whose pro sports divorce rate is pretty high - one year it's a beautiful marriage, but 12 months later its like your bags have been packed for you and left curbside in front of the Georgia Dome. All you can do is hope and pray that next year, you find that special draft pick or meet that new coach and think about how wonderful your honeymoon will be....
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